![]() Ujjivan Small Finance Bank: Ujjivan SFB reported its highest-ever PAT, led by robust loan growth (+31% YoY) and write-back in provisions. We recalibrate our FY24/25 EPS estimates higher by 14.5/22.4% to factor in the higher level of execution and better EBITDA margin. Given strong execution and robust OB, we maintain BUY, with an increased TP of INR 1,149 (14x Mar-25E EPS). INR 5.3bn is expected to flow in FY24 from the deal. The company monetised four HAM projects at a price-to-book value of 1.55x. In eight HAM projects, balance equity of INR 4.4/3.6/0.8bn will be infused in FY24/25/26. The standalone net debt, as of Mar'23, stood at INR 3.2bn. The focus for FY24 will be majorly on the roads and highways segment. It further guided that, going ahead, non-road projects will contribute 20-25% of OB. It guided for (1) FY24 order inflows of ~INR 80-90bn and (2) maintaining a book-to-bill ratio of greater than 2.5x. In FY23, it was awarded INR 86.5bn worth of projects, taking the OB (as of Mar'23) to INR 127.7bn (c.2.9x FY23 revenue). It guided FY24 revenue will grow by 22-23% YoY with an EBITDA margin of ~16%. ![]() HG Infra: HG Infra (HG) reported a strong quarter, beating our estimates on all fronts by 6.7/5.4/8%. Birla Corporation: We maintain our BUY rating on Birla Corporation (BCORP), with an unchanged target price of INR 1,310/share (8.5x Mar-25E consolidated. The stock is trading at a core P/E of 33/26x FY24/25E. ![]() We assign a SoTP-based TP of INR 940, based on 25x core June-25E PAT + CDSL stake + net cash ex SGF. ![]() We increase our EPS estimates by ~3/6% for FY24/25E and increase core multiple to 25x. We expect a revenue CAGR of ~16% over FY23-26E, led by a revival in transaction revenue. The investments in technology, infra (co-location) and hiring of new mid-level managers have led to an increase in cost, but the margins will expand with growth. The steps taken by the new management are yielding results and is likely to boost growth for FY24E. BSE has not realised any revenue from the derivative segment in Q1 but we expect it to be at least 2% of FY24E revenue. BSE has signed up with top broker members for enabling trading in SENSEX derivatives, which can increase UCCs and boost volumes significantly. The launch of a new derivative contract with a Friday expiry appears promising and is scaling new heights every week. BSE has lost cash/currency market share but has gained ~3% market share in the derivative segment. The revenue decline was due to a drop in listing revenue but was offset by higher transaction revenue (cash, Star MF). We expect a revenue/EPS CAGR of ~19/25% over FY23-26E, led by a revival in transaction revenueīSE: BSE delivered a soft quarter with a 5% QoQ revenue decline and lower margins due to an increase in investments. The steps taken by the new management are yielding results and will boost growth and margin. The increase in derivatives volume will boost cash volumes. We expect BSE derivative market share to reach ~10% in Q4FY24E, driven by the on-boarding of large member brokers, the launch of new weekly index contracts, hedging activity and a continued increase in active traders. The derivatives volume is organic and is driven by 219 members (proprietary and retail) and the active UCCs on the BSE derivatives platform have reached 0.17mn, from nearly zero in three months. BSE expiry day market share has reached ~11% without any liquidity enhancement scheme (LES). Impressively, BSE market share in the equity derivatives segment reached 3.4% in August (vs. BSE has witnessed initial success in the much larger equity derivatives segment, currently dominated by NSE, driven by the launch of a weekly index options contract (SENSEX) in May 2023. We assign a SoTP-based target price of INR 1,230, based on 28x core Sep-25E PAT + CDSL stake + net cash ex SGF. ![]() We increase our EPS estimates by ~7/11% for FY24/25E, increase core multiple to 28x (vs 25x), and upgrade rating to BUY. ![]()
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